DULUTH, Minn. (Northern News Now) – We’re just over three years away from the 2028 U.S. presidential election, and things aren’t looking great for Generation X to finally get one of their own into the Oval Office.
If Republicans get their way and the presumptive successor to President Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, ascends to the top job, it’s likely the generation raised on Atari, Pope John Paul II, and Flavor Flav will never place their hand on the Bible as leader of the free world. For reference, Generation X includes those born between 1965 and 1980. No, there’s no official decree on that range, but it’s the general consensus among researchers, demographers, and the media.
So, is this the final countdown for Gen X? A June 2025 Emerson College poll offers a sliver of hope, but it’s not exactly cause to cue up “Eye of the Tiger” just yet. Many Gen X contenders are seen as long shots. There were seven Gen X candidates surveyed and only one came in the top three. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leads the pack at 16%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9%. His lead over Baby Boomer and former Vice President Kamala Harris, which sits at 13%, is razor thin.
The Harris campaign has taken heat from disillusioned progressives who, post-optometrist visit, now claim to see her shortcomings with 20/20 vision. Despite burning through $1.4 billion, losing both chambers of Congress, and accumulating debt, the poll suggests she remains a viable candidate, though some donors might be sharpening metaphorical pitchforks if she gains traction again.
California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Gen X’er himself, hasn’t officially declared, but his July visit to South Carolina raised eyebrows. Officially, it was about helping Democrats. Unofficially, South Carolina just happens to be an early primary state. Newsom came in third in the poll with 12%. The million-dollar question: Would he jump in if his “friend” Harris runs? Not quite the “Who Shot J.R.?” drama, but for Gen X’ers raised on ’80s TV, the suspense is real. To be continued…
Beyond the top three, Gen X starts sliding into single-digit territory, and with it, their presidential hopes begin to resemble the DeLorean: iconic, niche, but ultimately not built to go the distance. These cast of characters are as different as those trouble making teens in “The Breakfast Club,” with Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro polls at 7%, Senator Cory Booker and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer sit at 3%, while Governors Andy Beshear (KY), J.B. Pritzker (IL), and Wes Moore (MD) round things out at a modest 2%.
Other Gen X names left out of the poll, but worth noting, include Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman and Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego. Fetterman was once a speculative favorite, even getting a thumbs-up from Bill Maher. But a May New York Magazine piece, featuring concerns from his former chief of staff, cast doubt on his viability. What makes Gallego more politically attractive than Denise Huxtable, Kelly Kapowski or Kelly Bundy is Arizona’s 11 electoral votes. He won in a state with more registered Republicans (36%) than Democrats (28), and has a sizable share of Independents (34%).
It’s still early, of course. Remember, back in October 1991, a Times-Mirror poll had Senator Bob Kerrey leading the Democratic field at 21%, while some little-known Arkansas Governor named Bill Clinton sat at 13%. We all know how that turned out. Today, every Democratic candidate has baggage and no one’s really laid out a clear vision for the country. Adding to the Gen X angst? Millennials might be poised to seize the moment, especially if New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps into the race. Earlier this year, she and Bernie Sanders drew massive crowds on their “Fighting Oligarchy” tour. AP reports they filled the Ford Idaho Center beyond the number of registered Democrats in Canyon County. If AOC runs, the Gen X field may struggle to match that energy.
“Yeah, it’s early,” said Cynthia Rugeley, associate professor and head of the Political Science Department at the University of Minnesota-Duluth. “There are some potential candidates who were born in 1964.” For this piece, I’m sticking with the 1965 to 1980 framework. Including 1964 would blur the lines with millennials on the other side of the spectrum. “I think there is a real possibility that Gen X could get squeezed out,” Rugeley said. “Some of it is because Boomers aren’t getting out of the way. Other reasons are because people want change, and they particularly want younger candidates.”
Former Baldwin Wallace University political science professor Thomas Sutton agrees with Rugeley. “Part of the challenge is that generations are usually about 20 years in range, but Gen X is only 15 years,” Sutton said. “Other younger Gen X potential candidates in their 40s and 50s still have a chance at getting elected.”
The range with Gen X does involve what President George W. Bush might have called, “fuzzy math.” William Strauss and Neil Howe, social theorists renowned for their generational theory, originally coined what is now known as Generation X as the 13th Generation. They defined the time period as spanning 1961 to 1981, which aligns more closely with Sutton’s projections. But most outlets today use the range established by the Pew Research Center: 1965 to 1980.
As for Republican Gen X’ers, intentionally left out of this piece, it’s unlikely any will challenge sitting VP Vance for the nomination. Emerson’s June poll looked at seven possible GOP contenders, including Sec. of State Marco Rubio, Gov. Ron DeSantis, and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. Vance leads comfortably, with Rubio a distant second at 12%.
“While Vance has a strong advantage as VP for term-limited Trump, he is not a lock for the nomination,” Sutton said. “If Republicans underperform in the 2026 midterms, and/or public opinion sours on the Trump Administration in mid-2027, Vance may be ‘tagged and dragged,’ opening space for Gen X challengers such as Rubio (54), DeSantis (46), Ted Cruz (54), Kristi Noem (53), [and] Glen Youngkin (58).”
It’s very possible, the highest achievement Gen X might reach in 2028 is the vice presidency, an accomplishment they’ve never claimed either. Maybe someday, the sun will shine on the moose-haired generation that once ruled the mixtape.
So we end on a question: Will one of these seven Democratic Gen X’ers summon the sword like Prince Adam and yell, “By the power of Grayskull!” to rescue Gen X from a Millennial presidency? If AOC is Evil-Lyn, Pete Buttigieg is Beastman and J.D. Vance is Skeletor, the Millennials may sit atop Skull Mountain and rule planet Eternia for a long time. Will AOC, Buttigieg or Vance lose sleep over blocking Gen X’s White House dreams? Who knows. Fun fact: I was once in the same building as Vance. (Yes, I know. That and two dollars gets you a Diet Coke.)
One last stat to chew on: Emerson’s July 2025 poll has Vance leading Buttigieg by just one point, Newsom by three, and, contextually, AOC by three as well. The single-digit Gen X warriors weren’t even tested in the sample of 1,400 voters (plus or minus 2.5%). Sutton said the sun hasn’t set for those “Latchkey kids” once known as The MTV Generation. “Voters have had 12 years of Senior Citizen presidents, and will more than likely be open to the appeal of younger candidates who have solid experience as the basis for a presidential run. The best fit for this criteria? Gen X!”
So yes, as any Gen X’er who’s seen the movie “Dumb and Dumber” might say: “So you’re telling me there’s a chance.”
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